• The key point to keep in mind when thinking about the global soybean market is that the US has been made less than great again, taking a secondary player role since January 2018.
• That being said, the National Soybean Index is in a long-term uptrend, indicating available stocks-to-use are tightening, but not tight.
• Looking ahead to new-crop, commercial traders are showing some concern over Brazil's potential 2026 production. 

This past week has seen a brighter spotlight put on the US oilseed sub-sector due to the release of the EPA’s imaginary renewable fuels standard number for 2026. (As I often say, particularly given the current environment, if you believe this number from this administration then I’ve got a mountain-top villa in south-central Kansas to sell you.) With traders continuing to transition from old-crop to new-crop, the question is what do we KNOW about the US soybean market? Our reads on real market fundamentals (the National Soybean Index, national average basis, futures spreads) tell us 3 things, at least. 

1: The US was made a secondary player in the global soybean market with the social-media driven trade war that began in January 2018. Yes, I hear you when you say this is opinion rather than something known, so in response I will speak in a language the majority of the industry holds dear, regardless of if it makes sense: USDA’s WASDE numbers. In all honesty, one doesn’t have to be overly intelligent to see what has happened, evening using USDA’s imaginary numbers. At the conclusion of the 2016-2017 marketing year the US had reportedly exported 58.96 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans, 7% behind Brazil’s reported exports of 63.14 mmt. By the end of 2017-2018 marketing year US exports reportedly trailed Brazil’s by 24%, then 36% then next year, ultimately falling to 56% behind at the end of the 2023-2024 marketing year. All while China’s imports were trending higher.

2: The US is not going to run out of its supply of soybeans anytime soon. The National Soybean Index ($CNSI) was calculated near $9.92 at the end of May putting available stocks-to-use (as/u) at 15.5%. From a quarterly point of view, based on the standard marketing year running from September through August, the May figure (end of Q3) was smaller than the end of February with the NSI at $9.52 and as/u of 17.4%. The May 2024 numbers were $11.43 and 10.2% meaning that while as/u are tightening during the 2024-2025 marketing year, it remains half-again as large as the end of Q3 from 2023-2024. Unlike corn, though, as the US soybean market Q3 came to an end the NSI was trending up meaning demand was outpacing supplies, based on the Law of Supply and Demand. Still, from an historic point of view, the May 2025 as/u of 15.5% was the largest Q3 figure since 2020’s 26.7% and larger than the 10-year end of May average of 15.1%. Again confirming the fact, the US is not going to run out of soybeans. 

3: As of this writing, the commercial side of the market remains relatively comfortable with new-crop supply and demand. A look at Wednesday’s closing Cost of Carry tables shows: 

• The November-January covered 47.5% calculated full commercial carry (cfcc)
  • As compared to the previous Friday’s settlement of 46%
• The January-March covered 36%
  • As compared to the previous Friday’s settlement of 39%
• The South America-driven March-May covered 31%
  • As compared to the previous Friday’s 35%
• While the 2025-2026 Nov-July forward curve covered 36%
  • As compared to the previous Friday’s 38%

What do all these numbers tell us? Commercial traders continue to put more pressure on the initial futures spread (Nov-Jan) due to the large old-crop as/u carrying forward into new-crop, combining with newly harvested bushels to be priced against the November issue. From there, though, things get a bit murkier as cfcc covered has been trimmed a bit due to the uncertainty of South American weather and Brazil’s next crop. Still, the Nov-July forward curve covered 25% cfcc the same week last year again telling us the long-term supply and demand is less bullish this time around the calendar. 

How might long-term investors view the soybean market? The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) remains in a major uptrend, with the fund completing a bullish outside month during April. Investors might’ve bought near the December settlement of $21.48, based on a bullish spike reversal on the monthly chart, with sell stops below the December low of $20.20. Some may have added long positions near the April settlement of $21.47, again with sell stops below the December 2024 low, raising the average purchase price to $20.85. Investors could also be looking to add positions if SOYB takes out its previous 4-month high of $22.78. Why be long SOYB if the US is a secondary player? Long-term fundamentals are not bearish, but rather almost bullish, indicating there could be some concern over Brazil’s 2026 production.